Oil Prices, Headlines, and Your Portfolio: Why Discipline Matters Most

Rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions are back in the headlines. For Canadians, that often means higher fuel costs and increased pressure on everyday expenses. When stock markets react to events like this, it is natural to feel that something needs to be done.

The challenge is that this instinct often leads investors in the wrong direction.

Periods of uncertainty tend to bring out these behaviours at the worst possible times:

1. When markets fall and headlines turn negative, investors become fearful and overly cautious.
2. When markets rise significantly, there can be the temptation to increase risk and chase higher returns.

Both reactions can feel reasonable in the moment, yet end up working against long-term goals.

Warren Buffett, one of the world’s most successful investors, has consistently taken the opposite approach. His focus has never been on reacting to short-term events, but on staying disciplined while others are making emotional decisions. His well-known view on holding investments “forever” is less about never making changes and more about avoiding mistakes.

That idea is especially important during periods like this.

Oil prices will rise and fall. Inflation moves in cycles. Global events create periods of volatility. None of this is new, even if the current headlines feel different.

The real risk is not that these events occur. The risk is making decisions in response that may disrupt an otherwise sound long-term plan.

There is an old saying: Investments are like a bar of soap. The more you handle them, the smaller they get.

While simple, it reflects a pattern that shows up consistently. Investors who make frequent changes, particularly during uncertain periods, often significantly reduce their long-term results.This does not mean doing nothing without thought. It means avoiding decisions driven by short-term noise and focusing on what truly matters.

Markets incorporate new information quickly. By the time an investor feels compelled to act, prices have often already adjusted. Acting on headlines rarely adds value.

For most investors, the best approach is to stay aligned with a well-designed plan. Maintain diversification, keep a long-term perspective, and make changes only when they are intentional and grounded in your overall strategy. Over time, successful investing is less about reacting to events and more about consistently making sound decisions. Staying disciplined in periods like this is what keeps your plan on track and your long-term goals intact

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^{This information has been prepared by Ryan Secord who is a Senior Investment Advisor for iA Private Wealth Inc. and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of iA Private Wealth. The information contained in this newsletter comes from sources we believe reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or reliability. The opinions expressed are based on an analysis and interpretation dating from the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, they do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned. The information contained herein may not apply to all types of investors. The Investment Advisor can open accounts only in the provinces in which they are registered.}

^{iA Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. iA Private Wealth is a trademark and business name under which iA Private Wealth Inc. operates.}

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